百胜中国：2024Q4核心经营利润超预期，保持高股东回报-20250219

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, which serves as a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4$115 million, up 18% year-on-year. The core operating profit was $150 million, reflecting a 35$11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and$13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2% [6]. - The projected net profit for the same years is $976 million,$1.056 billion, and $1.139 billion, with growth rates of 7.1$2.58, $2.87, and$3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Operational Performance - KFC and Pizza Hut's restaurant operating profit margins for Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - The same-store sales decline for KFC was 1% in Q4 2024, with transaction volume increasing by 3% and average ticket size decreasing by 4%. For Pizza Hut, the same-store sales decline was 2%, with transaction volume up 9% and average ticket size down 10% [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $248 million to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total of$1.5 billion for the year. The quarterly dividend increased by 50% to $0.24 per share, which will continue into 2025 [4].