2024年四季度中国物流地产市场概览：带你看中国

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the logistics real estate sector in China. Core Insights - The logistics real estate market in China is experiencing historically high levels of new supply, with 9.49 million square meters completed in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of over 9 million square meters of new supply [4][8]. - Despite a weak recovery in overall leasing demand, some cities are seeing high vacancy rates due to the influx of new supply. Cities like Shanghai, Nanjing, and Jiaxing have experienced vacancy rate increases of 4.8 to 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][8]. - The rental market is under pressure, with rents continuing to decline as landlords prioritize occupancy rates in response to high vacancy levels [3][13]. Summary by Sections New Supply and Vacancy Rates - In 2024, the logistics real estate market saw a total of 9.49 million square meters of new supply across 24 major logistics markets, maintaining a high level of new construction [4]. - Cities with lower new supply, such as Shenzhen and Xi'an, have vacancy rates below 10%, while cities with concentrated new supply, like Shanghai and Nanjing, are facing higher vacancy rates [4][8]. Leasing Activity and Market Dynamics - The net absorption for the year was 7.8 million square meters, an 8% increase year-on-year, but still significantly lower than the new supply [8]. - Tenants are adopting cautious leasing strategies, with low rents being a primary consideration. This has led to aggressive leasing strategies from landlords to improve occupancy [8]. - In regions like South China, cross-border e-commerce is driving leasing activity, while in the Yangtze River Delta, third-party logistics remains a key demand driver [8]. Outlook for 2025 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in retail sales, which may boost demand for logistics real estate from traditional sectors like third-party logistics and retail [13]. - New supply is expected to remain high in 2025, with cities like Foshan, Beijing, and Shanghai projected to see over 1 million square meters of new supply each, likely leading to increased vacancy rates [13].