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万豪国际:万豪酒店集团近况更新:4Q24收入利润超预期,2025年非酒店费用收入指引低于预期-20250220

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marriott Hotels & Resorts is maintained at NEUTRAL with a target price of 255,indicatingan11.6255, indicating an 11.6% downside from the current price of 288.42 [2][7][17]. Core Insights - Marriott's 4Q24 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue increasing by 1.9% year-over-year to 1,725million,drivenbygrowthinbasemanagementfeesandfranchisefees[3][14].Theguidancefor2025nonRevPARrelatedrevenueisbelowexpectationsduetoseveralfactors,includingareturntonormalcyincobrandedcreditcardfeerevenueandadeclineinlongstaybrandfeerevenue[3][14][17].GlobalRevPARfor4Q24grewby51,725 million, driven by growth in base management fees and franchise fees [3][14]. - The guidance for 2025 non-RevPAR related revenue is below expectations due to several factors, including a return to normalcy in co-branded credit card fee revenue and a decline in long-stay brand fee revenue [3][14][17]. - Global RevPAR for 4Q24 grew by 5% to 126.26, surpassing previous guidance and expectations, with North America showing strong leisure demand during the holiday season [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, base management fees and franchise fees grew by 3.7% and 12.8% to 333millionand333 million and 795 million, respectively [3][14]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 was 1,286million,exceedingexpectations[3][14].Theeffectivetaxratewas23.91,286 million, exceeding expectations [3][14]. - The effective tax rate was 23.9%, lower than the anticipated 26% [3][14]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6,899 million, reflecting a 4% increase from 2024 [2][7]. - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to grow from 9.33in2024to9.33 in 2024 to 10.18 in 2025, representing a 9.2% year-over-year increase [2][17]. Room Count and Membership Growth - By the end of 2024, Marriott had over 1.7 million rooms globally, a 6.6% increase year-over-year, with a significant contribution from franchised hotels [6][16]. - Marriott BONVOY membership reached 228 million, with a global member occupancy rate of 66% [6][16]. Market Outlook - The guidance for 2025 investor returns is approximately $4 billion, consistent with previous years [6][17]. - The report anticipates a 3.0% growth in RevPAR for 2025, with North America expected to grow by 2.1% [4][15].