中国宏观经济月报：长短期资本流出压力均较大

Group 1: International Balance of Payments - In Q4 2024, China's current account surplus reached $180.7 billion, while the non-reserve financial account deficit expanded to $211.1 billion[2] - For the entire year of 2024, the current account surplus was $422 billion, with a non-reserve financial account deficit of $503.8 billion[2] - Both the current account and trade account surpluses hit historical peaks, indicating significant capital outflow pressure and a lack of confidence in capital markets[2] Group 2: Trade Performance - In Q4 2024, China's goods trade surplus was $249.6 billion, marking the highest quarterly goods trade surplus ever recorded[10] - The annual goods trade surplus for 2024 was $767.9 billion, also the highest on record[10] - Service trade deficits showed marginal improvement due to a rapid increase in inbound travel from foreign individuals[10] Group 3: Capital and Financial Accounts - In Q4 2024, direct investment recorded a deficit of $12 billion, with outbound direct investment at $29.5 billion[13] - Foreign direct investment in China increased by $17.5 billion, but overall foreign direct investment was down by $38.2 billion compared to the previous year[14] - The non-reserve financial account deficit for Q4 2024, excluding FDI, was $199.1 billion, indicating a trend of increasing short-term capital outflow[17] Group 4: 2025 Outlook and Policy Response - As of January 2025, the capital outflow pressure remains significant, with a bank settlement balance of -$39.2 billion[20] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate around 7.3, including increasing offshore central bank bill issuance and adjusting cross-border financing parameters[23] - Recommendations include enhancing macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and boosting domestic demand through fiscal policy[25][26]