2025年第一季度天然气市场报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the gas market, with expectations of continued demand growth, particularly in Asia, despite a fragile global gas balance [6][14][29]. Core Insights - Global natural gas consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, with further growth anticipated in 2025, driven mainly by fast-growing markets in Asia [6][14][15]. - The global gas market remains fragile due to tight supply conditions and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to price volatility [6][14][24]. - The halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine is expected to increase LNG import requirements for the European Union, tightening market fundamentals [6][14][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Global gas demand surged by 2.8%, or 115 billion cubic meters (bcm), year-on-year in 2024, surpassing the average growth rate of 2% from 2010 to 2020 [15]. - The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 45% of the increase in global gas demand, primarily due to economic expansion [15][16]. - Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events have exacerbated market strains, leading to significant price volatility [14][24]. Gas Market Update - Global LNG supply grew by 2.5% (or 13 bcm) in 2024, significantly below the average growth rate of 8% from 2016 to 2020 [24]. - The forecast for 2025 anticipates a 5% increase in LNG supply, driven by the ramp-up of several large projects in North America and contributions from Africa and Asia [24][25]. - The halt of Russian piped gas deliveries is projected to reduce supplies to Europe by approximately 15 bcm in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. Key Gas Policies and Market Trends - Natural gas prices moderated significantly in 2024, with European TTF prices averaging USD 11/MBtu, more than double the five-year average [42]. - The correlation between Asian and European gas prices reached an all-time high, reflecting the globalized nature of gas markets [41][45]. - LNG contracting activity remained strong, with contracted volumes in 2024 reaching 68 bcm/year, a 27% increase from 2023 [69]. Low-Emissions Gases - Global biomethane output increased by an estimated 15% in 2024, with significant growth in Europe and North America [30]. - Policies supporting low-emissions hydrogen have become more robust, although project developments remain modest [30]. International Cooperation - The IEA has emphasized the need for greater international cooperation to enhance gas supply security amid tight market conditions and geopolitical tensions [32][112]. - Initiatives such as the Global Early Warning Mechanism have been established to facilitate information exchange related to gas and LNG security [113].