策略月报：相信光，追逐光（2025年2月）

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 strategy report is "light at the end of the tunnel" and "progress will be made" reflecting positive trends in the capital market despite challenges [1] - The capital market is expected to revolve around three main themes: "true returns," "true growth," and "true hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, strong policy support, breakthroughs in technology, and relatively low valuation levels in the capital market, enhancing its risk resistance [4][7] Group 2 - The economic environment shows a stable GDP growth of 5% for 2024, with notable export growth but low consumption and investment growth due to real estate drag [2][27] - The industrial sector is facing profit declines, with industrial enterprise profit margins remaining low due to price pressures [2][27] - The manufacturing sector's GDP grew by 6% in 2024, with the information technology industry showing the highest growth rate of 10.9% [27][28] Group 3 - The policy environment indicates increased counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing the capital market and promoting high-quality economic development [3][75] - A systematic plan for encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market has been established by multiple regulatory bodies [3][75] - Consumption subsidy policies have been expanded to include various electronic products, aiming to stimulate consumer spending [3] Group 4 - The report maintains previous recommendations for sectors such as banking, securities, and gold, while also introducing new recommendations for technology and healthcare sectors [7][16] - In January 2025, the gold ETF saw a 4.6% increase, while the Hang Seng ETF rose by 0.8%, indicating positive performance in these sectors [16][19] - The report notes that only 42.9% of the recommended sectors performed positively in January, with the securities sector experiencing a decline of 7.4% [16]