摩根士丹利：阿里巴巴业绩点评

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Equal-weight" rating to Alibaba Group Holding, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a modest upside potential for Alibaba, with a price target set at US$100.00, representing a downside of approximately 21% from the current price of US$125.79 [4]. - Financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 showed total revenues increasing by 8% year-over-year, with a significant beat in customer management revenue growth of 9% [7]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for the company was reported at 20.3%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the third quarter was RMB 260.35 billion, with an income from operations of RMB 22.51 billion, showing a 0.5% increase compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Adjusted diluted EPADS for the quarter was reported at 18.97, marking a 12.8% increase year-over-year [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [7]. Segment Performance - The Taobao & Tmall Group generated revenue of RMB 136.09 billion, reflecting a 43.2% year-over-year increase [3]. - The Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group reported revenue of RMB 37.76 billion, a 32.4% increase year-over-year [3]. - The Local Services Group, including Cainiao Smart Logistics, saw a revenue decline of 9.8% year-over-year, indicating challenges in this segment [3]. Capital Expenditure and Share Repurchase - Capital expenditures for the quarter were RMB 31.8 billion, representing 11% of revenue, a significant increase from RMB 8.9 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. - The company repurchased 15 million ADSs for US$1.3 billion, with a remaining authorization of US$20.7 billion effective through March 2027 [7].