瑞银：阿里巴巴业绩点评

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Alibaba Group with a price target of US$140.00, while the current price is US$125.79 [6][35]. Core Insights - Alibaba Group reported a revenue increase of 8% YoY to Rmb280 billion, with adjusted EBITA growing by 4% YoY to Rmb54.9 billion, marking a return to positive growth after three quarters [2][3]. - The growth in core businesses, particularly Taobao Tmall and AI-driven cloud services, has been a significant driver of performance [2][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in consumption and an optimistic outlook for CMR (Customer Managed Revenue) growth, with expectations for continued market share recovery in the upcoming quarters [4][10]. Summary by Segment - Taobao Tmall: Revenue increased by 5% YoY, with CMR accelerating from +2.5% in the September quarter to +9.4% in December. This growth is attributed to GMV growth and the full-quarter benefit of a 0.6% platform service fee [3][11]. - AIDC: Revenue grew by 32% YoY, driven by cross-border initiatives. However, EBITA widened due to seasonal factors and increased strategic investments [3][4]. - Cloud Services: Revenue rose by 13% YoY, with external cloud revenue growing by 11% and AI-related revenue experiencing triple-digit growth. EBITA margin improved from 9.0% to 9.9% [3][4]. - Overall Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITA margin was reported at 19.6%, down 0.7 percentage points YoY, reflecting ongoing investments in user acquisition across various segments [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Alibaba Group are projected to reach Rmb965 billion in FY25, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [9]. - EPS estimates for FY25 are projected at Rmb64.41, surpassing consensus estimates [7][9]. Market Reaction Expectations - Positive reactions are anticipated following the results, contingent on management's outlook regarding CMR growth and margin strategies during the earnings call [10][12].