2024年四季报点评：业绩不及预期，订单环比有所下滑

Core Insights - THK's Q4 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with a sequential decline in orders across various segments [7] - The company anticipates a brighter outlook for its Japan and China operations in 2025, projecting revenue growth in these regions [7] - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Neutral" with a target price adjustment to 3,900 JPY [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, THK expects total revenue of 352.8 billion JPY, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of 10.4 billion JPY, reflecting a significant decline of 43.3% [7][8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 376.9 billion JPY, 393.9 billion JPY, and 402.9 billion JPY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.5 billion JPY, 17.2 billion JPY, and 19.3 billion JPY [7][8] Order Trends - In Q4 2024, THK's orders for machine tools, general machinery, and semiconductor equipment decreased by 4.8%, 6.3%, and 1.4% respectively, indicating a potential loss in market share [7] - Regionally, orders in Japan, Europe, and the Americas saw declines of 5.4%, 3.7%, and 4.3%, while orders from Taiwan increased by 21.3%, driven by growth in semiconductor equipment and components [7] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/B ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.42, 1.38, and 1.34 respectively, indicating a moderate valuation trend [7][8] - The report highlights a projected operating profit margin of 4.9% for 2024, with expectations of improvement to 6.5% by 2025 [7] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - THK's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 28 billion JPY in 2024, with significant capital expenditures projected at -30 billion JPY [8] - The company anticipates a net cash increase of -28 billion JPY for 2024, reflecting ongoing investment needs [8]