Core Insights - The report analyzes the synchronization or divergence between southbound capital and international capital structures in the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting the increasing influence of southbound funds [1] - It emphasizes the growing market share of Hong Kong Stock Connect, which has risen from 4.5% at the end of 2020 to 10.3% by the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in its impact on the market [35][33] - The report forecasts a favorable environment for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, driven by external and internal factors, including the ongoing structural changes in asset pricing and the potential for a resonance window for technology innovation and capital inflow [2][3] Investor Holding Situation - As of February 14, 2025, the market share of various investor types in the Hong Kong stock market is as follows: Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts for 10.7%, Chinese intermediary institutions 8.2%, local Hong Kong intermediaries 3.2%, and international intermediaries 43.3%, totaling 65.3% for these four categories [6][11] - Compared to the end of 2020, the market share of Hong Kong Stock Connect has increased by 6.2 percentage points, while international intermediaries have seen a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [6][11] Southbound Capital Flow Analysis - Southbound capital has shown a consistent upward trend in transaction volume since 2014, with an average daily transaction volume of 481.94 billion HKD in 2024, accounting for approximately 36% of the total market transaction volume [33] - In 2024, the cumulative net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect was about 807.9 billion HKD, with positive net inflow on approximately 82% of trading days [33][25] Foreign Capital Flow Analysis - International intermediaries maintain a significant influence in the Hong Kong market, particularly in the non-essential consumer and information technology sectors, where their market share exceeds 50% [8][11] - In February 2025, international intermediaries recorded a net inflow of approximately 182 billion HKD, primarily in the information technology sector, while experiencing net outflows in other sectors [29][30] Industry Insights - The report identifies the top three sectors with the highest market share for Hong Kong Stock Connect as energy, healthcare, and telecommunications, while the lowest are in conglomerates, real estate, and non-essential consumer sectors [37][38] - The financial, information technology, and non-essential consumer sectors collectively account for about 64% of the market share in the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong alignment with the holdings of Hong Kong Stock Connect [39][38]
南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧？
中国银河·2025-02-21 10:56