NIFD季报：人民币汇率

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Trump 2.0 tariff policy is expected to increase U.S. inflation, leading to heightened uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will keep U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at high levels [29] - The report forecasts that the U.S. dollar index will remain in a high consolidation phase, expected to fluctuate between 102 and 112 in 2025 due to the impacts of the Trump tariff policy [29] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan will face significant depreciation pressure against the U.S. dollar, with the expected trading range for the yuan against the dollar set between 7.1 and 7.5 [28][29] Group 2 - The report outlines that from January 2, 2024, to February 12, 2025, the U.S. dollar index rose from 102.25 to 108.01, reflecting a 5.6% appreciation, while major currencies depreciated against the dollar [8][10] - The report details that the Trump tariff policy will likely drag down GDP growth in both the U.S. and China, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP decrease of 0.1-0.4 percentage points for the U.S. and 0.3-0.4 percentage points for China [14][17] - The report notes that the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar has been influenced by both external factors, such as U.S. monetary policy, and internal factors, including China's economic recovery and capital outflows [24][25]