BABA(BABA) 申万宏源·2025-02-24 02:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [6][40]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Alibaba is focusing on AI and cloud computing as core strategic areas, with significant investments planned to enhance its capabilities in these domains [6][19]. - The collaboration with Apple to develop localized AI features for iPhone users is expected to enhance Alibaba's AI commercialization pathways [6][39]. - The financial forecasts for Alibaba's revenue are projected at 155.9 billion, 177.3 billion, and 190.2 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, indicating a positive outlook for revenue recovery and growth [6][19]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Innovation and Development - DeepSeek's V3 and R1 series models have been launched, marking a significant advancement in AI capabilities, with performance comparable to leading models like OpenAI's GPT [10][12]. - The introduction of the MoE architecture and other optimizations has significantly reduced training costs, enhancing the commercial viability of AI applications [12][15]. 2. Acceleration of AI Strategy - Alibaba's cloud intelligence group reported a revenue of 31.742 billion RMB for FY3Q25, a 13% year-on-year increase, with AI-related product revenues growing at triple-digit rates for six consecutive quarters [19][24]. - The capital expenditure (Capex) for FY3Q25 reached 31.8 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial increase aimed at bolstering AI and cloud infrastructure [24][27]. 3. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report projects a valuation space of 26.294 billion RMB for the Taotian Group and 4.196 billion RMB for other businesses, with a target price raised to 174 USD per share, representing a 21% upside potential [6][19]. - The focus on e-commerce, technology, and internet platform products is expected to drive Alibaba's growth trajectory [6][19].