名创优品（MNSO）：季报前瞻：4Q国内仍承压，25年增长路径清晰

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][8][15] Core Insights - The company is expected to announce its 4Q24 financial results in mid-March, with projected revenue of RMB 4.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [3][14] - Domestic revenue is anticipated to be RMB 2.63 billion, while overseas revenue is projected at RMB 2.19 billion, reflecting growth rates of 12% and 47% respectively [5][14] - The adjusted net profit for 4Q24 is expected to be RMB 827 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.1% [3][14] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24-26 are RMB 17.1 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 25.1 billion, representing growth rates of 23.6%, 24.2%, and 18.4% respectively [8][12][15] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 2.75 billion, RMB 3.32 billion, and RMB 3.95 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 17%, 20%, and 19% [8][12][15] - The company is valued at 18 times the projected earnings for 2025, leading to a target price of USD 26.9 [8][15] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic business revenue is expected to reach RMB 26.3 billion in 4Q24, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [4] - Overseas business revenue is projected to be RMB 21.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [5] - The company plans to open approximately 220 new stores in 4Q24, with a total of 669 new stores expected for the year [5][6] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 4Q24 is expected to be 46.7%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 16.1%, consistent with previous guidance [5][8]