煤炭行业周报：供给小幅收紧、非电需求改善，预计将减缓煤价跌势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the slight tightening of supply and improvement in non-electric demand are expected to slow down the decline in coal prices. Despite high inventory levels putting pressure on prices, factors such as reduced production during Indonesia's Ramadan and rising international shipping costs may provide some support for coal prices [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of coal supply from Shanxi, with port inflows returning to levels seen in the same period last year. Non-electric industries are gradually ramping up operations, contributing to increased demand for coal [1][4]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from increased market coal supply and stable operations [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China by nearly 20% this year, aiming for a total of 100 million tons by 2025 [8]. - The U.S. has established a National Energy Dominance Council to enhance its energy leadership [8]. - Russia is developing new railways to boost coal exports to China [8]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as 540 RMB/ton for Datong and 435 RMB/ton for Ordos [9]. - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim region has also seen a decline [9]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have slightly increased, with a closing price of $75.60 per barrel [16]. - The ratio of international oil prices to domestic coal prices has risen, indicating a shift in the energy market dynamics [16]. 4. Port Inventory Levels - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have increased, with a total of 29.68 million tons reported, reflecting a 4.92% week-on-week growth [20]. - The average daily inflow and outflow of coal at these ports have both risen, indicating active market movements [20]. 5. Coastal Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased slightly, with an average freight rate of 22.59 RMB/ton reported [24]. - International shipping costs from Newcastle, Australia to Qingdao, China have increased marginally [24]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the coming years [28].