摩根士丹利：中国房地产怎么了？接下来会怎样？用 12 张图表解读违约周期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the China property sector, but it indicates that the sector is nearing the end of a default cycle that began in early 2021 [2][3]. Core Insights - The China property sector has experienced a significant default cycle, with 44 high-yield property issuers defaulting on their offshore USD bonds, amounting to a total of US$127 billion in defaults, the largest for any sector in the Asia high-yield credit market [10][14]. - Despite the end of defaults, a quick recovery is not anticipated, and the recovery path is expected to be long and complex [3][4]. - The China property sector now represents only 2% of Asia credit, down from nearly 50% at its peak in 2021, indicating a diminished role in the overall Asia credit market [22][24]. Part 1: A Painful Default Cycle - The current default cycle has seen a cumulative total of 44 defaults since 2021, compared to only 2 defaults during the previous cycle in 2014-15 [10]. - The default rate for China high-yield property issuers peaked at nearly 60%, while the Asia high-yield default rate was around 40% [18]. - The majority of defaults (70%) occurred in 2021 and 2022, with a notable slowdown in defaults observed in 2023 [15][18]. Part 2: Restructuring Is a Work in Progress - Only six defaulted China property issuers are actively engaged in debt workouts, with half of the debt from distressed issuers currently in winding-up orders or petitions [29][31]. - Recovery rates for defaulted issuers are low, with 39 issuers having recovery rates below 15%, and the credit market pricing an expected recovery rate of only 7.2% for distressed bonds [33][36]. Part 3: The Long Road to Recovery - The credit market expects that most redemptions in the China high-yield property sector will be paid, with bonds trading close to par, except for specific cases like SUNAC [43][45]. - The China property physical market is projected to bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an expected drop of over 10% in primary sales volume [51][52]. - Contracted sales recovery is crucial for the sector, with liquidity risks diminishing but ongoing challenges related to landbank depletion and project completion affecting sales [55][56]. Performing China HY Property Credits - A screen for performing China high-yield property credits identified seven issuers whose bonds are not trading at distress levels, with average long-end bond prices above 70 cents [59][61].