摩根士丹利：G10外汇策略-2017年美元的重演

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook on the US dollar (USD) for 2025, indicating a decline similar to that observed in 2017 [5][74]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main factors contributing to the expected decline of the USD in 2025: slower-than-expected tariff increases, stronger-than-anticipated global economic growth, and underperformance of EU-skeptical political parties [74]. - It emphasizes that fiscal and monetary policies in the US will not fully incorporate growth expectations until after the passage of a budget reconciliation bill [9][74]. - The report draws parallels between 2017 and 2025, suggesting that the USD's performance will be influenced by similar trade policies and global economic conditions [10][74]. Summary by Sections US Trade Policy - The report anticipates that US trade policy will weigh on the USD in 2025, similar to its impact in 2017, with expectations of gradual tariff increases on China and key European products [84][85]. - The administration's tariff strategy aims to leverage tariffs for short-term policy concessions and achieve long-term security goals [86][87]. US Fiscal Policy - The report notes that median economist deficit forecasts are unlikely to shift until a budget bill passes, which may occur relatively late in the year [79][80]. - It highlights that fiscal expectations were relatively unchanged from April to December 2017, impacting the USD's performance [79][80]. Global Growth - The report indicates that global growth expectations in 2025 are likely to be in line with those of 2017, which saw a rebound in global growth that affected the attractiveness of financial assets outside the US [39][42]. European Politics - The report suggests that political stability in Europe, particularly the underperformance of EU-skeptical parties, contributed to a reduction in EUR-negative risk premium in 2017, a trend expected to continue in 2025 [51][52]. Central Banks - The report discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and the ECB's unchanged policy, noting that the shadow short rate differential between the US and Eurozone remained stable [15][61].