Predicting STEM Achievement: A Comparative Study of ACT Scores and High School GPA

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study finds that both high school GPA (HSGPA) and ACT STEM scores are significant predictors of first-year GPA (FYGPA) for STEM majors, with HSGPA generally having a stronger effect [3][70] - The interaction between HSGPA and ACT STEM scores enhances predictive accuracy, indicating a complex relationship [3][70] - Incorporating demographic variables such as gender, race/ethnicity, and family income adds nuance to the predictive model, affecting FYGPA and moderating the relationships between predictors [3][70] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the importance of college admissions test scores and high school GPA in predicting college success, particularly in STEM fields [11] - It highlights the debate over the predictive power of HSGPA versus standardized test scores like the ACT [11][12] Methodology - The analytical sample consisted of 2,691 students who graduated in 2022, enrolled in a public postsecondary institution, and declared a STEM major [20] - The study utilized hierarchical linear models to evaluate the predictive validity of ACT STEM scores and HSGPA on FYGPA [25][36] Results - Descriptive statistics show that the average HSGPA was 3.55, ACT STEM score was 21.01, and FYGPA was 3.00 [32] - The correlation between HSGPA and FYGPA was moderately strong (0.51), while the correlation between ACT STEM scores and FYGPA was moderate (0.36) [34] - Model 6, which included both academic achievement indicators and demographic variables, provided the best fit, explaining 34% of the variance in FYGPA [43][46] Discussion - The findings emphasize the importance of sustained high performance in high school and equitable access to resources for diverse student backgrounds [4][70] - The study suggests that both HSGPA and ACT STEM scores provide complementary information for predicting academic readiness in STEM majors [72][74] - Recommendations for parents and post-secondary institutions include supporting students' academic journeys and refining admissions processes to incorporate both HSGPA and ACT STEM scores [5][75]