GUILIN FUDA (603166) 申万宏源·2025-02-25 00:18Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the PHEV wave, with its crankshaft business expected to grow alongside new ventures in electric drive gears and robotics, creating new growth ceilings [6][7]. - The company has a strong customer base, including major players like BYD and Geely, and is expanding its production capacity to meet increasing market demand [6][7]. - The financial forecasts indicate significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the transition to PHEV and the expansion into new product lines [6][7]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,352 million yuan in 2023 to 3,288 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 104 million yuan in 2023 to 394 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 40.8% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.16 yuan in 2023 to 0.61 yuan in 2026 [4]. Business Overview - The company has been a key supplier of crankshafts, with 59% of its revenue coming from this segment in 2023 [6][15]. - The transition to PHEV vehicles has led to a shift in the market dynamics, with an increasing trend towards outsourcing crankshaft production [6][52]. - The company is also diversifying into electric drive gears and robotics, leveraging its existing capabilities and customer relationships to capture new market opportunities [6][7]. Market Potential - The domestic market for crankshafts is estimated to be around 22.4 billion yuan in 2024, with significant demand from both passenger and commercial vehicles [6][47]. - The PHEV segment is expected to drive further growth, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its established relationships with leading manufacturers [6][52]. Valuation and Target Price - The report suggests a target price based on a 31x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current market price [6][7].