Unity Software Inc：业绩超预期，推出AI广告平台Vector-20250225

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Unity (U.US) with a target price of $33, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of$ 28.34 [4][7][8]. Core Insights - Unity's Q4 2024 revenue was $457 million, exceeding market expectations by 5.9%, driven by strong seasonal demand and product performance improvements. The strategic combination revenue was$ 442 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [7][8]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the company was $106 million, surpassing market expectations by 26.8%. However, due to the impact of the migration of core advertising products, the guidance for Q1 2025 remains cautious, with revenue expected to be between$ 405 million and $415 million, corresponding to a year-on-year decline of 3% to 5% [7][8]. - Unity 6 adoption has shown positive progress, with approximately 38% of active users upgraded to Unity 6, which is higher than previous new version adoption rates. This indicates a recovery of customer trust following the announcement of the cancellation of the Runtime Fee [7][8]. - The AI advertising platform, Unity Vector, is set to begin full migration by the end of Q1 2025, leveraging the entire Unity ecosystem's data to provide deeper insights and optimize performance for clients [7][8]. - The report anticipates that Unity's Create business revenue will return to double-digit growth, and the AI advertising platform Vector may represent a business turning point [7][8]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Unity's revenue is projected at$ 2,187 million, with a decline to $1,813 million in FY24, followed by a slight decrease to$ 1,757 million in FY25E. The adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $448 million in FY23, decreasing to$ 390 million in FY24 [3][8]. - The report adjusts FY25E and FY26E revenue estimates to $1,757 million and$ 1,912 million, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA margins projected at 20% and 24% [7][8]. - The total market capitalization of Unity is approximately $11.61 billion, with an average trading volume of$ 263 million over the past three months [4][7].