月度美国宏观洞察：关税大棒逐渐落下，美国经济何去何从？

Trade Policy Insights - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, with the latter effective from February 4[5] - The tariffs are intended to reduce the trade deficit and generate fiscal revenue for tax cuts[1] - If tariffs on most countries are implemented, it could slow global economic growth and increase U.S. inflation[6] Economic Data Overview - January core inflation rose unexpectedly by 0.24 percentage points to 0.45%[9] - The labor market remains robust, but signs of weakening are expected as economic momentum slows and government layoffs begin[17] - Retail sales in January showed a surprising decline, influenced by seasonal adjustments[24] Inflation Projections - The 10% tariff on Chinese imports is estimated to raise U.S. inflation by 0.15 percentage points, while a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico could add 0.77 percentage points[10] - If Trump's proposed tariffs are fully enacted, inflation could rise by as much as 2 percentage points[10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The forecast for interest rate cuts has been adjusted to 2-3 times this year, with the first cut not expected before June[3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by inflation concerns and the ongoing trade war[34] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. dollar index has seen a slight decline of 1.7% in February, attributed to weaker economic data and stronger currencies from trading partners[38] - The forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is set at 4.1% by year-end, with potential downward pressure if rate cuts occur[38]