2025中国消费市场新趋势

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in 2024, with a focus on the resilience of consumer demand [1][3]. Core Insights - The overall FMCG market is expected to maintain steady growth, with the lower-tier markets, particularly in counties and towns, serving as key growth engines. The out-of-home market is also identified as an important growth driver [49]. - There is a notable differentiation in consumption patterns among various consumer groups, with the silver economy showing significant growth potential. Young consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness while also valuing convenience and enjoyment, whereas families with children focus on their children's development [49]. - The retail landscape is undergoing significant differentiation and upgrading, with rapid growth in membership stores, interest-based e-commerce, and community-oriented retail formats. As channels become increasingly fragmented, understanding the roles of different retail formats in consumers' minds is crucial for optimizing product distribution and enhancing marketing efficiency [49]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The 2024 FMCG market is projected to grow steadily, with urban disposable income increasing by 4.6% and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 3.4% compared to 2023 [4]. - The overall growth rate for the FMCG market in urban areas is expected to be 1.7% in 2024, a decrease from 5.2% in 2023 [4][6]. Category Performance - Different categories within FMCG are experiencing varied growth rates, with food and beverage categories showing positive trends, while dairy products face challenges [6][7]. - The sales growth rates for various categories in 2024 compared to 2023 are as follows: Food +3.2%, Beverages +7.5%, Dairy -3.3%, Home Care +4.0%, and Personal Care -2.4% [6]. Consumer Behavior - Middle-aged and elderly households are leading the growth in household consumption, while younger families are becoming more cautious in their spending [11][15]. - The sales growth rate for elderly households is +8.6%, indicating a shift in consumer dynamics [11]. Channel Dynamics - The modern retail channel is experiencing a split, with membership stores showing strong momentum, while traditional retailers are adjusting their strategies [26][30]. - Membership stores have seen a sales growth rate of +21.0%, with significant expansions in their presence across urban areas [26]. E-commerce Trends - Interest-based e-commerce continues to lead, with platforms like Douyin expanding their consumer base and user engagement [33]. - The penetration rate for e-commerce in FMCG is notable, with a significant portion of households purchasing through home delivery platforms [37]. Conclusion - The FMCG market in 2024 is characterized by stable growth, diverse consumer needs, and evolving retail formats, highlighting the importance of strategic positioning and product alignment to meet changing consumer preferences [49].