钴行业供给端变化更新点评：刚果金暂停钴产品出口，预期钴价触底反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cobalt industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [3][11]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has temporarily suspended cobalt exports for four months due to oversupply, which is expected to lead to a rebound in cobalt prices [2][4]. - The DRC is the largest supplier of cobalt globally, accounting for approximately 76% of the world's cobalt supply. The export restrictions could impact the global supply by approximately 68,000 tons [4][5]. - Demand for cobalt is projected to grow steadily, with an expected increase of 4.3% in 2025, reaching 214,000 tons, driven by applications in power batteries and emerging sectors like drones and robotics [4][5]. - Cobalt prices have significantly decreased from a peak of 580,000 CNY/ton in 2022 to around 159,000 CNY/ton, but have recently started to recover, reaching 177,000 CNY/ton [4][5]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are anticipated to alleviate the oversupply situation in the cobalt market, which has seen prices decline over the past few years [4][5]. - The global refined cobalt supply is projected to reach 305,900 tons by 2025, with a supply-demand balance indicating a surplus of 91,800 tons after accounting for the DRC's export restrictions [6]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the cobalt sector, such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, are highlighted for their profit elasticity in response to the expected price recovery [4][7]. - The report provides a valuation table for major cobalt companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years [7].