中金-全球资金流向监测：外资有多少配置空间？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment sentiment with a focus on the acceleration of passive foreign capital inflows while active foreign capital continues to experience outflows, albeit at a reduced scale [1][3][6]. Core Insights - Active foreign capital continues to flow out of the Chinese market, but the scale of outflows has narrowed, while passive foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly [1][3][6]. - Southbound capital has seen a substantial increase, with inflows reaching 512.1 billion HKD this week, more than double the previous week's inflow of 217.7 billion HKD [2][7]. - The report highlights that the proportion of foreign investment in Chinese stocks remains historically low, with active funds holding only 6.1% of their assets in Chinese stocks, which is 1.1 percentage points below the benchmark index [4][6]. Summary by Sections Foreign Capital Flow - As of February 19, 2025, active foreign capital outflows from A-shares amounted to 1.3 million USD, while passive inflows were 4.3 million USD [6]. - The overall foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market and ADRs increased to 6.8 million USD, with passive funds seeing a significant rise from 5.4 million USD to 9.1 million USD [3][6]. Southbound Capital - Southbound capital inflows reached a record high of 224.2 billion HKD on February 19, 2025, marking the highest single-day inflow since January 2021 [2][7]. - The proportion of southbound trading in the Hong Kong main board has increased from 20% to 30% since November 2024, with a slight rise to 31% this week [2][20]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global capital flows, with U.S. stocks turning to inflows of 1.45 billion USD, while emerging markets have seen a slowdown in outflows [5][7]. - The report emphasizes that the return of active foreign capital to the Chinese market is contingent upon the realization of trends in the AI industry and macroeconomic narratives [4][6].