中金-港股策略：再论中国资产的重估前景

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the technology sector, highlighting a structural bull market driven by emotions and selective stock performance [3][5][10]. Core Insights - The recent market rally is characterized as a typical structurally driven bull market, primarily fueled by optimism in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 24% since February 3 [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to focus on individual stock selection and industry structure to outperform the index, as the current rally is concentrated among a few leading technology stocks [3][5][10]. - Future market performance is expected to depend on catalysts within the industry, technical indicators, and the flow of funds, particularly from passive and trading funds [7][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has rebounded significantly, recovering all losses since December 2021, with a 6% increase last week [1]. - The report notes that the market has shown signs of fatigue, with a brief pullback before the positive sentiment was reignited by Alibaba's earnings report [2][5]. Fund Flows - There has been a substantial inflow of southbound capital, with HKD 512.1 billion entering the market, more than double the previous week's inflow [4]. - The report highlights that passive funds focused on Chinese and US-listed companies are driving the inflows, while active funds continue to see outflows [4][10]. Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market's short-term performance will hinge on industry-specific catalysts and the emotional state of investors, with a cautious approach recommended around the 23,000-24,000 point range [8][9]. - Long-term prospects indicate a shift towards a more structural market, driven by established industry trends and the potential for significant capital reallocation [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on four main investment themes: stable returns through dividends and buybacks, overseas expansion in mid-tier manufacturing and new retail, technology investments related to AI, and new consumer trends [12].