宏观动态报告：股债汇“不可能三角”的当下和未来

Monetary Policy Dynamics - In January 2025, the monetary policy focus shifted to financial stability and exchange rate stability, forming a "triangle" of stock, bond, and currency targets[2] - The historical "possible triangle" occurred only in 2017 and 2020, during strong economic recoveries in China[2] - The current economic consensus does not foresee a strong recovery in 2025, leading to a "impossible triangle" scenario[2] Economic Growth Projections - The nominal GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is projected at 4.9%, indicating a moderate recovery[3] - CPI and PPI are expected to rise modestly to 0.9% and -0.2% respectively by the end of 2025[3] - Three narratives are anticipated to validate the economic outlook: stronger-than-expected real estate recovery, better-than-expected consumption rebound, and Deepseek's impact on capital expenditure[3] Interest Rates and Currency Forecasts - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.9% in 2025, with a reasonable level around 1.64% if the policy rate is cut by 40 basis points[4][5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to hover around 7.3, with potential fluctuations between 7.1 and 7.5 depending on trade policies[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential misinterpretation of policies, unexpected central bank actions, and government bond issuance exceeding expectations[42] - The external environment, particularly U.S. monetary policy and trade uncertainties, could significantly impact China's economic stability and currency valuation[32]