海通总量前瞻25年“两会”系列1：积极财政：多少总量？哪些方向？

Fiscal Policy Outlook - The macro policy direction is increasingly positive, but growth stabilization will occur under the framework of "high-quality development" without excessive stimulus measures[3] - The total budget deficit, special bonds, and special treasury bonds for 2025 are expected to increase by approximately 2 trillion yuan compared to 2024[3] - The budget deficit rate is likely to be marginally adjusted upwards, expected to reach around 4%[9] Fiscal Funding Allocation - In 2025, the focus of incremental fiscal funds will be on three main areas: increased investment in "two new and two heavy" projects, short-term support for real estate, and stable long-term support for technological innovation[3] - The scale of new special bonds is expected to increase from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024 to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[9] - The issuance of long-term special treasury bonds is likely to continue, with the scale potentially increasing from 1 trillion yuan in 2024 to around 2 trillion yuan[9] Policy Implementation and Risks - Fiscal measures are expected to be implemented earlier in 2025, with a focus on maintaining policy space for future economic fluctuations[11] - The use of special bonds will likely shift towards land reserves and the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[19] - Risks include potential misinterpretation of data and policies not meeting expectations[25]