家电行业月度动态跟踪：零售继续受益于国补，积极布局AI+消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The home appliance industry is benefiting from national subsidy policies, with a notable increase in demand and improved profitability [3][5] - The market is expected to see a recovery in sales due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted consumer spending [5][10] - Companies with international supply chain capabilities are likely to benefit from changes in U.S. tariff policies [25] Summary by Sections National Subsidy Policy - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly boosted home appliance sales, with retail sales reaching 1,030.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 12.3% year-on-year increase [5] - The subsidy has led to a notable increase in the average selling price of appliances, enhancing industry profitability [3] White Goods - Home air conditioning sales are expected to grow due to continued subsidy support, with January 2025 domestic sales at 7.21 million units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [28] - The export of home air conditioners saw a 17% increase in January 2025, indicating strong overseas demand [28] Black Goods - The global market for televisions is improving, with a projected retail volume of 30.86 million units in 2024, a decrease of only 2% year-on-year, while retail revenue increased by 16% [66] Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance sector is experiencing strong growth, with online retail sales in January 2025 reaching 22.4 billion yuan, a 10.1% year-on-year increase [76] Industry Performance - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue of 1,187.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [88] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.715 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.41% increase year-on-year [88] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.52, below the historical average of 17.71 since 2008, indicating long-term investment value [98] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading home appliance companies that are globally competitive and benefit from domestic subsidies, such as Hisense, Stone Technology, Midea Group, and Haier [102]