中国银河：每日晨报-20250228

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield in 2025 will fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.9%, with a reasonable level at 1.64% if the central bank lowers the policy rate by 40 basis points throughout the year [7] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to hover around 7.3, with potential fluctuations between 7.1 and 7.5 depending on future US tariff actions [7] - The report highlights a shift in monetary policy priorities towards financial stability and exchange rate stability, forming a "triangle" of stock, bond, and currency policy [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for March 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on growth-oriented value stocks that benefit from favorable policies and strong earnings expectations [11][9] - Key sectors for investment include technology and consumer sectors, which are expected to perform well due to policy support and anticipated earnings surprises [11][9] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress and the peak of annual report disclosures in March present structural investment opportunities [11][9] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Thermal Power - The thermal power industry is characterized by strong profitability and stability, with combined heat and power (CHP) systems showing significant energy efficiency advantages [18][19] - The average gross profit margin for the thermal power business has been between 20% and 32% since 2020, indicating a robust financial performance compared to traditional coal-fired power [19][20] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with favorable valuation levels and dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from asset injections and expansion of the industrial chain [21][20] Group 4: Company Analysis - Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group reported a revenue of 53.3 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with a significant growth in international business [24] - The company’s international business has shown strong recovery, with outbound travel services exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 120% [25] - Despite a decline in profit margins due to increased marketing expenses, the long-term growth potential in international markets remains promising, supported by AI technology applications [27][26]