德意志银行：中国宏观-全国人民代表大会可能带来哪些惊喜？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The expected growth target for China in 2025 is likely to remain at 5%, unchanged from 2024, with a fiscal deficit target set at 4% of GDP, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from 2024 [3][6] - The government is expected to announce an inflation target of 2% for 2025, a significant reduction from the previous target of 3% [5][6] - Special government bonds (CGBs) and local government special bonds (LGSBs) quotas are anticipated to increase, with special CGBs expected to rise to CNY2 trillion from CNY1 trillion [6][7] - The property sector may receive additional support measures due to slow construction activity, with potential funding sources being monitored [7] - The government is likely to promote private sector development, with new laws being expedited to address challenges faced by private enterprises [7] - There is a strong focus on supporting the technology and AI sectors, with expectations for concrete policy announcements to promote AI development [7] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The national growth target for 2025 is likely to be set at 5%, with provincial targets averaging 5.3% [3][9] - The fiscal deficit is expected to be set at 4% of GDP, with increased government bond issuance [3][10] Inflation and Bond Issuance - The inflation target may be adjusted to 2%, aligning with provincial targets [5][6] - Special CGBs are expected to increase to CNY2 trillion, with LGSBs projected to rise to CNY4.5 trillion [6][7] Property Sector Support - The report highlights the need for further measures to support the property sector, including potential funding for unfinished projects [7] Private Sector and Technology Development - The government is expected to expedite laws promoting private sector growth and support for technology and AI sectors [7]