汇丰银行：中国股票策略-审视 “美国优先投资政策”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a limited impact from the US administration's 'America First Investment Policy' on China equities, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for investment in this sector [9][6]. Core Insights - The 'America First Investment Policy' memorandum restricts US investments in China's strategic areas, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, but the overall impact on China equities is expected to be minimal [3][9]. - US portfolio holdings of mainland China-registered equities reached USD202 billion by the end of 2023, with an estimated total of USD545 billion in China equities held by US portfolios [4][6]. - The report estimates that only about 0.3% of A-shares and 5.6% of non-A shares are subject to the new restrictions, indicating that the policy's effect on both onshore and offshore markets is limited [6][9]. Summary by Sections US Investment Holdings - US portfolio holdings in mainland China-registered equities were USD202 billion at the end of 2023, with a significant portion of Chinese companies registered outside mainland China [4][11]. - The report estimates that USD35 billion of A-shares and USD240 billion of non-A shares are subject to the new investment restrictions [6][14]. Impacted Stocks - The largest US investor positions are in Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, with significant holdings also in BeiGene and Trip.com. Most of these positions are through mutual funds, which are less affected by the new policy [7][9]. - Specific stocks like Alibaba and Tencent are restricted, while others like Meituan and PDD are not, indicating a varied impact across different companies [16][17]. Market Valuation - The FTSE China index is currently trading at a forward PE of 11.5x, which is in the 64th percentile since 2005, suggesting that the market is relatively valued compared to historical standards [18][20]. - China equities are trading at an 11.2% discount compared to emerging markets, indicating potential for future growth [20][21]. Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable return of foreign funds to mainland China equities since the rollout of DeepSeek-R1, with significant foreign inflows observed since September 2024 [22][24].