2025年两会前瞻

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is likely to remain at 5%, consistent with the previous year, signaling a focus on economic growth[5] - Most local governments have set their GDP targets at or below 5%, with only Qinghai setting a lower target of 4.5%[6] Inflation and Price Stability - The inflation target for 2025 is expected to be lowered from 3% to 2%, marking the first adjustment since 2014, excluding 2020 due to African swine fever[7] - This adjustment reflects ongoing downward pressure on prices, with PPI showing negative growth for 28 consecutive months[7] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase from approximately 10 trillion yuan in 2024 to around 12 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of about 2 trillion yuan[16] - The deficit rate is expected to rise from 3% to a range of 3.8%-4%, with the total deficit amounting to approximately 5.5 trillion yuan[17] Special Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special bonds for "two new" projects is anticipated to be between 1 trillion to 1.2 trillion yuan, alongside 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan for supplementing bank capital[15] - Local government special bond quotas are expected to expand from 3.9 trillion yuan to between 4.5 trillion and 5 trillion yuan, including 800 billion yuan for debt replacement[16] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is shifting towards "moderate easing," with expectations of a total reduction of around 100 basis points in 2025[20] - The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, focusing on timing and effectiveness[20] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on destocking, urban village renovations, and establishing a long-term development model for the real estate sector[22] - Policies will likely emphasize stabilizing the housing market, ensuring project completion, and addressing inventory issues without introducing demand-stimulating measures[22]