融达期货宏观日报0228

Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicated that interest rates may remain unchanged for "some time," with current stock market valuations at high levels, seeking evidence of inflation moving towards 2% before considering further rate cuts; overall financial conditions are currently loose[1] - The European Central Bank's minutes show progress in anti-inflation efforts, with inflation expected to remain above target in the near term; risks from energy and food price increases, a strong labor market, and high wage negotiations necessitate caution, with evidence suggesting an upward adjustment in risk balance since December[1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts a 35.9% year-on-year growth in global new photovoltaic installations for 2024, but a sharp decline to 10% growth in 2025; China, as the largest single market, may see its new installations decline for the first time in history by 8.13% to 22.54% in 2025[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products rising across the board; soda ash up 2.29%, crude oil up 1.62%, and fuel oil up 1.45%[2] - Major agricultural products saw increases, with soybean one up 1.32% and soybean oil up 1.04%[2] - The NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.13, reflecting a daily increase of 1.90% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%[2] - The COMEX gold price closed at $2887.80, down 1.50% for the day but up 33.29% year-on-year[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.06, with a daily increase of 0.23% and a year-on-year increase of 11.51%[2]