季节性因素助推2月制造业PMI重回扩张-宏观经济专题报告

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1% in January, indicating a return to expansion[2]. - The production index for February was 52.5%, an increase from 49.8% in January, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity post-Spring Festival[2]. Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 52.5%, up from 49.9%, showing significant expansion, while medium-sized enterprises decreased slightly to 49.2% from 49.5%, and small enterprises fell to 46.3% from 46.5%[2][5]. - The recovery in manufacturing sentiment was uneven across different enterprise sizes, with large firms showing stronger growth compared to medium and small firms[4]. Demand and Orders - The new orders index increased to 51.1% in February from 49.2% in January, indicating a rise in market demand[2][5]. - New export orders index improved to 48.6% from 46.4%, while the import index rose to 49.5% from 48.1%, suggesting a potential increase in export activities[2][5]. Price Indices - The main raw materials purchase price index was 50.8%, up from 49.5%, while the factory price index was 48.5%, up from 47.4%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year in February[3]. Inventory and Employment - The raw materials inventory index fell to 47.0% from 47.7%, indicating cautiousness in future production expansion, while the finished goods inventory index rose to 48.3% from 46.5%[3][6]. - The manufacturing employment index increased slightly to 48.6% from 48.1%, suggesting a modest improvement in employment conditions within the sector[6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was stable at 50.4%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase to 52.7% from 49.3%[7][8]. - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.0% from 50.3%, reflecting a minor contraction in activities post-Spring Festival[7][8].