房地产行业3月策略专题报告：内生和外生因素支撑下的需求中枢

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the real estate industry [2] Core Insights - The demand for housing is supported by both internal and external factors, with a projected total housing demand of 875.2 million square meters by 2050, where rigid demand accounts for 168.9 million square meters (19.3%), improvement demand for 618.5 million square meters (70.67%), and renewal demand for 87.8 million square meters (10.03%) [4][76][78] - The core cities' second-hand housing market shows resilience, with January 2025 sales in first-tier cities outperforming the same period in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [10][19] - The land acquisition premium rate has increased, with January 2025 seeing a premium rate of 8.73%, the highest since August 2021, reflecting confidence in core city markets [24][27] Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals Gradually Bottoming Out - The second-hand housing market in core cities has shown resilience, with January 2025 sales in first-tier cities increasing year-on-year [10][19] - The land acquisition premium rate has risen, with first-tier cities accounting for 28.07% of land transactions in January 2025, the highest since 2019 [24][27] 2. Long-term Demand Expected to Exceed 875 Million Square Meters - Internal demand is driven by population growth and urbanization, while external demand arises from urban renewal projects [33][36] - By 2050, the total housing demand is projected to be 875.2 million square meters, with internal demand constituting 89.97% of this total [76][78] 3. Policy Support for Stabilization - Local government reports frequently mention the need for a new real estate development model and stabilization efforts [82][83] - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, supporting housing demand [82] 4. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the continuous release of demand in core cities and the positive performance of land auctions are crucial for the industry's development [4][76] - Recommended companies include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, and Vanke A, among others [4][76]