宏观市场月报：美国经济滞涨风险上升

Economic Overview - In early 2025, China's economy showed stability, with January's financial data indicating marginal improvements in total financial volume and structure[5] - The average new home price in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.1% month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 5.7% to 5.4%[8] - The U.S. economy is facing stagnation risks due to high inflation expectations and a high-interest rate environment, leading to renewed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[5] U.S. Economic Indicators - In January 2025, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the three-month moving average rising to 237,000, the highest since April 2023[13] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3% in January, the highest since June 2024, with core CPI at 3.3%[16] - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% in January, the largest decline since March 2023, influenced by adverse weather and declining consumer confidence[20] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. continues to apply tariff pressures on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on Chinese products, leading to retaliatory measures from China[5] - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas began on January 19, 2025, with ongoing negotiations for a second phase[5] - Trump's new policies are reshaping U.S. geopolitical strategies, including significant tariff implementations and immigration reforms, which may impact economic growth[21] Market Trends and Asset Allocation - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience low volatility in 2025, with a focus on defensive asset allocation strategies due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties[39] - Recommendations for asset allocation in 2025 include increasing government bonds to hedge against weakening economic growth, maintaining gold as a hedge against currency depreciation, and selectively increasing blue-chip stocks in the second half of the year[43] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.3% and 1.9% in 2025, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to remain between 4% and 5%[33][35]