煤炭行业周报：供给收缩、非电需求改善，预计煤价跌势将放缓

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in coal prices is expected to slow down due to supply contraction and improvement in non-electric demand. The current price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is reported at 690 RMB/ton, down 29 RMB/ton week-on-week and 232 RMB/ton year-on-year. The supply side shows a recovery in Shanxi's production, with port inflows returning to the levels of the same period in 2023 [1]. - The report highlights that while coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels, the decline in imported coal's cost-effectiveness and the recovery in non-electric demand are expected to stabilize prices. Coking coal prices are also noted to be at a bottom, with potential for recovery as the peak season approaches [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Energy Administration has released guidelines for 2025 focusing on energy security and high-quality development, emphasizing coal production stability and the promotion of non-fossil energy [8]. - A joint initiative from coal industry associations stresses the importance of adhering to long-term contracts for electricity coal and maintaining production balance [8]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have decreased, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as 520 RMB/ton in Datong and 395 RMB/ton in Inner Mongolia [9]. - The report notes a steady decline in international coking coal prices, with Australian coking coal at 1410 RMB/ton [11]. Inventory and Demand - The report states that coal inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with average daily outflows increasing significantly [19]. - Non-electric demand is recovering, with power plants showing good inventory reduction and increased demand ahead of important meetings [1]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen, with average freight rates increasing by 12.43% to 28.22 RMB/ton [23]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share projections [27].