民营企业AI科创总动员--从经济四周期配置大类资产3月篇

Group 1: AI and Technological Innovation - DeepSeek's launch marks a significant milestone in AI, enabling low-cost, large-scale, localized deployment, breaking the computational barriers set by the U.S.[10] - The cost of computational power is expected to decrease by 90% annually, leading to a global productivity surge and transformative impacts across industries[12]. - The 2025 private enterprise symposium signals a major push for AI technological innovation in China, emphasizing the importance of private enterprises in this sector[13]. Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - The Chinese equity market is undergoing a revaluation of AI technology assets, with significant inflows from global hedge funds into Chinese tech stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong and A-share markets[20]. - The global manufacturing PMI reached 50.1 in January, indicating an expansion phase, which is expected to boost demand for commodities[26]. - Gold is experiencing a physical shortage, with significant flows from London to New York, driven by geopolitical tensions and increasing demand from emerging markets[28]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Currency Dynamics - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with plans for similar tariffs on automobiles, initiating a global trade conflict[17]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a defensive stance around 7.35 to 7.40 against the dollar, with potential for appreciation as U.S. tariffs stabilize[32]. - Short-term government bond yields in China have risen from 0.90% to 1.50% over two months, reflecting market pressures and a shift in investment flows towards equities[31].