策略月报：AI高山仰止？何处寻觅洼地？（2025年3月）

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes embracing AI and the intelligent era, recommending sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, computing, media, humanoid robots, and mechanical manufacturing for investment opportunities [1][4] - The TMT sector, humanoid robots, and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant increases, with TMT market turnover reaching historical highs [1] Economic Environment - In January, CPI showed moderate growth while PPI remained sluggish. Corporate cash flow pressures are significant, with a notable decrease in corporate RMB demand deposits [2] - The manufacturing PMI index showed signs of recovery, particularly among large enterprises, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.6 percentage points [2] Policy Environment - The policy environment remains supportive, focusing on technological innovation as a driver of new productivity and emphasizing domestic consumption as a key economic growth driver [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to promote AI development among state-owned enterprises [3] Investment Strategy - The capital market is expected to revolve around three main themes: "true returns," "true growth," and "true hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on undervalued dividend assets and technological innovation, while maintaining a dynamic asset allocation approach [4][7] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with structural risks and earnings disclosure risks to be monitored [7] Industry Performance - In January-February, 16 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with TMT and manufacturing sectors leading the way. The computer sector had a cumulative increase of 13.8% [15] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductor, computing, and electrical equipment, which have shown strong performance [17] Fund Flow - As of February 28, southbound funds recorded a cumulative net inflow of 39,761.6 billion HKD, with significant monthly inflows in January and February [22] - Margin financing balances are near historical highs, indicating increased market activity and investor confidence [24] PMI and Industrial Performance - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.2%, indicating a recovery, particularly in large enterprises [53] - Industrial profits for 2024 showed a total profit of 74,310.5 billion CNY, a decline of 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing operational pressures [51]