摩根大通：台积电的cowos下调解读

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for TSMC with a price target of NT$1500.0 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report indicates that recent adjustments in CoWoS order projections from customers like NVDA and Marvell/AWS do not reflect a demand issue, as overall CoWoS demand remains higher than TSMC's capacity to fulfill in 2025 [2][4]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to remain tight through 2025, despite a more than double capacity expansion, driven by strong demand from AI labs and US CSPs [4][6]. - NVDA's demand for CoWoS wafers is projected to reach approximately 390k in 2025, sufficient for producing around 6 million Blackwell chips [6][7]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Adjustments in customer projections stem from overbooking and TSMC's push for accurate forecasts, rather than a decline in demand [4][5]. - Strong demand trends are noted for various products, including NVDA's H200s and H20s, indicating a robust market environment [4][5]. Capacity and Production Forecasts - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to reach 75k wafers per month by the end of 2025, with total capacity for the year expected to be around 725k wafers [4][6]. - NVDA's CoWoS wafer demand is expected to grow by approximately 20% in 2026, supporting the production of 7.5 million Blackwell and Rubin chips [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Stock Outlook - Despite potential short-term negative sentiment due to order adjustments, the underlying demand for AI hardware remains strong [6][7]. - The report expresses a positive outlook on TSMC and its AI ecosystem, emphasizing its critical role in enabling AI technologies across various sectors [6][7].