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中船特气:产品价格下行导致业绩持续承压,扩能拓品巩固市场地位静待格局改善-20250303

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining product prices, but it is focusing on capacity expansion and product diversification to strengthen its market position while awaiting improvements in the industry landscape [10][11] - The company has seen a recovery in demand from downstream sectors, but increased competition in key products like trifluorine nitrogen has led to price pressures, impacting profitability [10][11] - The company is investing in new production capabilities and product lines to support domestic substitution and enhance growth potential [10][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,616 million in 2023 to 2,757 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 335 million in 2023 to 304 million in 2024, before recovering to 384 million by 2026 [8] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease from 36.8% in 2023 to around 29.4% by 2026, reflecting ongoing pricing pressures [8]