中国消费品2月需求报告：基数原因和惯性因素拖累增速

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2025, only 3 out of 8 tracked industries maintained positive growth, while 5 experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth included restaurants, beer, and soft drinks, while sub-high-end liquor, quick-frozen foods, condiments, and dairy products saw single-digit declines. Mass liquor experienced double-digit declines. The sluggish data is attributed to a high year-on-year base and inertia factors from the previous year [8][33]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - Sub-high-end and Above Liquor: February revenue was 48 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 99 billion yuan, down 7.0%. Demand for banquet scenarios decreased post-Spring Festival, and many companies are controlling shipments [4][11]. - Mass and Below Liquor: February revenue was 16 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 38 billion yuan, down 18.3%. This segment has seen 13 consecutive months of negative growth [13]. Beer Industry - February revenue was 14.5 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 32.8 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The industry is experiencing a low inventory level, creating a window for performance recovery [5][16]. Condiments Industry - February revenue was 37.6 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 83.6 billion yuan, flat year-on-year. Demand during the Spring Festival was robust, and the industry is seeing a concentration of market share among leading brands [18]. Dairy Industry - February revenue was 42.1 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 87.6 billion yuan, down 2.3%. There is a marginal improvement in sales performance compared to the previous year [21]. Quick-frozen Foods Industry - February revenue was 12.5 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 27 billion yuan, down 0.5%. The demand for traditional frozen products is weak, while pre-prepared dishes are performing well [23]. Soft Drinks Industry - February revenue was 47.5 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 140 billion yuan, up 2.1%. The industry is preparing for the peak season with various promotional activities [26]. Restaurant Industry - February revenue for listed restaurant companies was 13.8 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 30.3 billion yuan, up 4.3%. The industry is moving away from price competition and focusing on quality [28].