中金：煤炭：成本支撑渐显，煤价探底寻锚

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Outperform" [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has been under pressure due to a loose supply-demand balance, primarily driven by supply factors. Despite the price decline, coal prices remain at a historically moderate to high level [3][12] - Domestic coal production is at a historical high, with significant recovery in output observed post the Spring Festival, despite weak price conditions [27][39] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in demand as coal consumption rises in the latter half of Q2 2025, contingent on potential production cuts materializing [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal has been relatively stable, with production levels remaining high despite declining prices. As of February 28, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal fell to 699 CNY/ton, a 9% year-to-date decline [4][13] - The report notes that while domestic demand for electricity and heating coal has been lackluster, industrial demand, particularly from steel and chemical sectors, shows resilience with a year-on-year increase in iron production of approximately 1.7% and a 10% increase in chemical coal demand [39] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the coal supply remains sticky in the short term due to local economic and employment considerations, making large-scale production cuts unlikely [5][63] - Current coal inventories are at a historical high of around 600 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40-60 million tons. However, this increase alone is not expected to dictate coal price trends, as seasonal demand may lead to inventory reduction [50][51] Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests that some high-cost domestic and international coal companies may face financial losses in Q1 2025, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in competitive cost leaders such as Shaanxi Coal and Coal Energy [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cost structures, as the average coal production cost has risen significantly, which may lead to financial pressures on companies [69][70]