中金：全球研究：日元会一路升值吗？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or currency involved. Core Insights - The Japanese yen has appreciated over 4% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, making it the strongest currency among G10 and Asian currencies [1][8] - The appreciation of the yen is primarily driven by trading factors related to the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan, rather than reflecting genuine demand from Japan [2][11] - The underlying reasons for the yen's appreciation include rising inflation in Japan, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and the resulting upward pressure on Japanese bond yields [2][18] Summary by Sections Yen Appreciation Factors - The yen's appreciation is largely attributed to speculative trading by foreign investors during non-Japanese trading hours, indicating a lack of genuine demand from Japan [2][12] - Japan's inflation rate reached 4.0% year-on-year in January 2025, the highest among major developed economies, driven by both cost-push and demand-pull factors [2][18] Capital Flows - There is a persistent net outflow of funds from Japan, with the trade balance showing a deficit of approximately 2.7 trillion yen in January 2025 [3][27] - The financial account indicates continued capital outflows, with Japanese investors increasingly investing in foreign stocks, particularly in the US [32][37] Future Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the yen may appreciate due to trading factors, but long-term sustained appreciation is unlikely due to structural capital outflows from Japan [40][43] - Historical patterns suggest that significant yen appreciation typically requires economic weakness in the US or global risks [40][43] Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates, with a potential terminal rate around 1.5% [22][40] - The market is pricing in limited further increases in Japanese interest rates, which may not support substantial yen appreciation [43] Speculative Trading Impact - The current net short positions in the yen are limited, suggesting that a significant reversal leading to sharp yen appreciation is unlikely [5][45]