中金：海外策略：美国增长走弱的“真相”

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or market discussed Core Insights - The recent downturn in the US stock market, particularly in tech stocks, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the previous bullish trend, especially with significant declines in major companies like Amazon (-10%), Google (-15%), and Tesla (-20%) [1][20] - The report emphasizes that the current economic slowdown is not unexpected and can be viewed as a natural consequence of previous high interest rates, which are expected to eventually stimulate demand as they decline [3][5] - Concerns regarding tariff risks and their potential impact on supply-side inflation are highlighted, indicating that these risks could hinder the positive effects of declining interest rates [6][8] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Interest Rates - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the US economy, noting that recent data weakness is a result of high interest rates from the previous year, which are now expected to decline and potentially boost economic activity [3][4] - It is noted that the market's fears of recession may be overstated, as historical patterns suggest that such fears often lead to unexpected resilience in economic performance [2][5] Tariff Risks - The report outlines the increasing concerns over tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which could lead to supply-side inflation and complicate the economic recovery process [6][7] - The potential for tariffs to create inflationary pressures is acknowledged, with the report suggesting that these risks are currently difficult to assess definitively [8][9] AI and Technology Sector - The emergence of DeepSeek has disrupted the narrative surrounding US AI dominance, leading to a reevaluation of tech stock valuations, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong market outperforming the US market [10][11] - Despite short-term valuation adjustments, the report argues that the fundamental strength of leading tech companies remains robust, and the overall trend in the tech sector is not expected to reverse [11][12] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market will continue to grapple with unresolved risks in the short term, but anticipates potential turning points in economic indicators and policy developments by March-April [12][13] - Recommendations include considering opportunities in US Treasury bonds and being prepared to re-enter the US stock market after significant declines, with a focus on maintaining a strong dollar [15][16]