中金：中国图说中国宏观周报：增长可能边际放缓 ——1-2月经济数据前瞻

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Economic activity is expected to slow down marginally due to the policy window period and external disturbances such as the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [1] - Industrial production growth is projected to decline to approximately 5.2% year-on-year for January-February 2025, down from 6.2% in December 2024 [2] - Consumer spending shows moderate growth, with retail sales growth expected to be around 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous quarter [3] - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to remain stable at 3.2% for January-February 2025, with infrastructure investment expected to grow around 10% [4] - Real estate sales growth has narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in major cities, indicating a lag in the transmission from sales to investment [5] - Export growth is expected to decline to approximately 3.0% year-on-year, influenced by higher base effects and tariff disturbances [6] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Economic activities are expected to be impacted by the policy window period and seasonal factors, leading to a potential slowdown in growth [1] - The industrial production growth rate is projected to decrease due to high base effects from the previous year and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing moderate growth, with retail sales growth lower than previous holiday periods, indicating a need for further policy support [3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to hold steady, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery [4] Real Estate - Real estate sales have shown a decrease in growth rate, with a significant drop in land transaction volumes, indicating a lag in investment recovery [5] Exports - Export growth is projected to decline, influenced by external factors such as tariffs and base effects from the previous year [6]