Economic Growth - The industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.6% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from December 2024[8] - Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up by 1.7 percentage points from the previous period[9] - Social retail sales are anticipated to rise by 5.3% year-on-year in January-February 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to earlier[9] Trade and Inflation - Exports are expected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in January-February 2025, down by 6.4 percentage points from the previous period[12] - Imports are projected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up by 1.7 percentage points from October 2024[37] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in February 2025, a drop of 1.0 percentage point from the previous period[41] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are expected to reach 14,800 billion yuan in February 2025, an increase of 300 billion yuan year-on-year[46] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.0% year-on-year by the end of February 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous period[51] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 in March 2025 due to various external factors[58]
预测报告：春节错位叠加政策效应释放，经济恢复继续
Bei Da Guo Min Jing Ji Yan Jiu Zhong Xin·2025-03-04 08:52