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2024年4季度上海办公租赁市场分析报告
2025-03-04 13:04

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Shanghai office leasing market, with a recommendation to adopt a cautious investment approach due to the ongoing downward pressure on rental prices and increasing vacancy rates [12][15]. Core Insights - The Shanghai office leasing market is experiencing significant new supply in 2024, leading to intensified competition between mature and new projects, resulting in increased pressure on absorption rates [1][15]. - Average rental prices in Shanghai have shown a downward trend, with a 1% decrease in Q4 2024, bringing the average rent to 4.2 CNY/㎡·day [1]. - The overall vacancy rate in Shanghai has risen to 23.5%, marking a continuous increase over the past seven months, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [12][14]. Summary by Sections Rental Price Trends - Rental prices across various ring roads in Shanghai have generally declined, with the largest drop observed in the Zhongwai ring area, where average rents fell to 2.92 CNY/㎡·day, a decrease of 1.1% [2][4]. - The average rent in the Inner Ring decreased by 1% to 5.75 CNY/㎡·day, while the Inner Zhonghuan area saw a drop of 0.8% to 3.9 CNY/㎡·day [2][5]. Market Performance by Grade - Grade A+ office rents fell by 2.1%, marking the most significant decline among sub-markets, with some areas like the Baibai Block experiencing nearly a 4% drop [7][8]. - Grade A office rents overall decreased by 1.1%, with notable declines exceeding 6% in areas with lower office concentration, such as Lujiazui and Hongkou [9]. - Grade B+ office rents also saw a decline of 1.1%, particularly in areas like Sichuan Road and Xuhui Riverside, where drops exceeded 2.5% [10]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in demand, with weaker companies exiting the market and stronger firms opting for higher-quality office spaces, exacerbating vacancy issues [13]. - Developers are responding to these challenges by upgrading existing office buildings to better meet the needs of emerging industries [13][14]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued challenges in the Shanghai office leasing market due to excess supply, but suggests potential for recovery as policy effects and economic adjustments take hold [15].