融达期货宏观日报0305

Trade and Tariff Developments - The Chinese government will impose a 15% tariff on certain U.S. imports including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton starting March 10[1] - Canada announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on $30 billion CAD worth of U.S. imports, with an additional $125 billion CAD to follow in 21 days[1] - U.S. President Trump indicated that Canada’s tariffs would trigger equivalent tariffs from the U.S.[1] Export Controls and Agreements - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce added 15 U.S. entities, including Lidos, to its export control list, prohibiting dual-use item exports to them[1] - The U.S. and Ukraine are reportedly planning to sign a mineral agreement, with Trump expected to announce it during his congressional speech[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.63% to $68.04, with a year-over-year decline of 17.55%[3] - COMEX gold rose by 0.83% to $2928.20, showing a 35.51% increase year-over-year[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.22% to 5778.15, with an annual increase of 11.58%[3] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is currently at 91% for the 425-450 basis points range[3] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.71%, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24.94%[3]