Guodu Securities·2025-03-05 01:47Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][29] Core Insights - The demand recovery post-Spring Festival is relatively weak, aligning with expectations. The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a nearly 10% year-on-year decline in the sales of liquor, despite a noticeable improvement in the month-on-month performance. The liquor sector is entering a low season, and with companies like Wuliangye and Jinshiyuan halting shipments to maintain prices, the fundamental outlook is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. The consumer goods sector shows a continued recovery, but the feedback from the Spring Festival is weak, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, which is expected to face short-term pressure. The condiment sector is showing a steady recovery, while dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year. The absolute growth rate of snack foods remains high, but growth is expected to cool due to a high base. Overall, the sector is likely to remain weak in the short term, but a gradual recovery is anticipated throughout the year, making it a good candidate for medium to long-term investment [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a continuation of the decline in the liquor industry, with an expected drop of nearly 10%. Post-holiday, the price of Moutai has stabilized and slightly increased, while Wuliangye's price has rebounded significantly after halting shipments. The first half of 2025 is expected to remain weak, but medium-term prospects may improve as domestic policies take effect. High-end liquor is recommended for long-term investment, with specific companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao highlighted [6][7]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, but overall performance remains weak. The restaurant supply chain continues to struggle, while the condiment sector is experiencing a steady recovery. Dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year, and the growth rate of snack foods is anticipated to decrease due to a high base. The sector is characterized by essential demand, and performance may exceed that of the liquor sector. Companies such as Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring are recommended for medium to long-term investment [6][7]. Market Performance - The sector has experienced a slight pullback in the first three trading days post-holiday, primarily due to weak fundamental feedback. The overall decline for the sector in 2025 is 6.9%, attributed to systemic adjustments and weak fundamental performance [10][11].