Guodu Securities·2025-03-05 01:48Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][22]. Core Insights - The prices of pure MDI and TDI have shifted from rising to falling due to demand not meeting expectations. MDI is currently facing a 41.5% tariff due to an anti-dumping investigation in the US, but the impact on the company's performance is expected to be limited as they adjust channels through Hungarian production [3][13]. - Potash prices continue to rise, with domestic upstream operating rates low and the demand peak approaching. The international market is experiencing supply tightness due to Ural Potash Company announcing the closure of three mines for maintenance, leading to a reduction of at least 300,000 tons in Q2 production [3][12]. Industry Performance Statistics and Analysis - From February 17 to February 21, 2025, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.97%. The best-performing sectors included membrane materials, other rubber products, and carbon black, while the worst-performing sectors were phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, and soda ash [9]. - The price of titanium dioxide has risen to 14,546 RMB/ton, up 0.43% week-on-week, driven by cost pressures and the upcoming demand peak. Dragon Group announced a price increase of 300 RMB/ton for domestic customers and 50 USD/ton for international customers [11]. - The price of potassium chloride is currently 2,954 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.61% and a monthly increase of 14.58%. Domestic supply is expected to decrease by about 15% due to winter maintenance, while international supply is constrained by geopolitical factors [12]. Price Trends of Key Products - TDI price has decreased by 12.82% to 12,925 RMB/ton due to low downstream demand and limited orders, leading to a surplus of market supply [12][16]. - Pure MDI price has dropped by 2.05% to 19,100 RMB/ton, with market activity subdued as downstream demand remains weak [13][16]. - The overall chemical product prices have shown active performance since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to cost pressures and supply-demand mismatches [13]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong long-term prospects, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Longbai Group, Satellite Petrochemical, Juhua Co., Huat Gas, Yake Technology, and Jiangnan Chemical [14].